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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.