Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.